The conference semifinals are underway — in the East, at least.
While the West waits on the results of two first-round series, the Milwaukee Bucks and Miami Heat tip off their second-round series on Monday night, and the Boston Celtics already took Game 1 from the defending champion Toronto Raptors.
Who will advance in the bubble? Our experts break down what you need to know about Miam-Milwaukee and Boston-Toronto in the Eastern Conference semifinals.
Note: Our preview of the Western Conference semifinals will post once matchups are set. Vegas odds provided by Caesars Sportsbook. Statistics provided by ESPN Stats & Information research.
Eastern Conference semifinals
The Bucks were stunned in Game 1 against the Orlando Magic, which prompted them to lock in and handle business. Outside of the competition on the court, a lot happened for Milwaukee in the opening round: Giannis Antetokounmpo was named Defensive Player of the Year, and the team took a stand for social justice, boycotting Game 5 of the series and kick-starting a movement across the sports world.
Biggest question after Round 1: What will the supporting cast bring?
For the Bucks, we know what Antetokounmpo is going to do. He will play hard, lead by example and stuff the stat sheet like a holiday plate, but the narrative has shifted to the supporting cast. Defensively, Eric Bledsoe was locked in against Orlando, but he’s still trying to get going offensively. Khris Middleton was also up and down offensively against the Magic, scoring just two points in Game 2. This Bucks team will go as far as Antetokounmpo can take it, but he’ll need the supporting cast to step up in a major way against the Heat.
Matchup to watch: Milwaukee vs. the 3
Before the restart, Milwaukee dominated the Eastern Conference all season. But the Bucks’ kryptonite might be the 3-pointer. No team in the league gave up more makes (14.0) or allowed more attempts (39.3) per game than the Bucks during the regular season. Miami was second in the league in 3-point percentage (37.9%) and connected on the sixth most in the league (13.4 per game) in the regular season.
The Heat hit 45.7% from long range in the teams’ meeting in the bubble on Aug. 6 — a game that did not feature Jimmy Butler or Goran Dragic. Miami has one of the best 3-point shooters in the league in Duncan Robinson, who tied a franchise record with seven 3s in Game 2 of the team’s first-round series against the Indiana Pacers.
What the stats say
Although they give up the occasional long ball, the Bucks have a significant advantage inside. During the regular season, they held opponents to an NBA-low 38.7 paint points per game. The Heat scored 43.9 paint points per game, third fewest in the NBA.
On the other end of the floor, Antetokounmpo averaged 16.4 points per game in the restricted area in the Bucks’ first-round win over the Magic. Since 2000, the only players to average more in a series are LeBron James (2017 NBA Finals) and Shaquille O’Neal (2000 NBA Finals).
— Eric Woodyard
5. Miami Heat
Round 1: Def. Pacers 4-0
BPI odds vs. Bucks: 15%
Vegas series odds: +450
Miami’s first round was a complete wipeout of a Pacers team that didn’t have enough offensive firepower. The Heat’s methodical defense held up well throughout most of the series, Jimmy Butler made big plays on both ends of the floor, Goran Dragic repeatedly rose to the occasion offensively, and Bam Adebayo, Duncan Robinson and Tyler Herro each had big moments for the group. The showdown with the Bucks is one the Heat have been preparing for all season — and they believe they are ready.
Biggest question after Round 1: Is Butler’s shoulder OK?
The Heat have some nagging injuries — but none bigger than Butler’s left shoulder strain that bothered him throughout the end of the Pacers series. Butler is confident that treatment and rest will make him feel better, but it’s the single biggest issue for this group heading into the series. For the Heat to be at their best, Butler needs to be able to perform at the All-Star level that defined his first season in South Beach.
Matchup to watch: Everybody vs. Giannis
The Heat have the type of length, athleticism and experience to frustrate a talented Bucks team, but the key will be how head coach Erik Spoelstra decides to handle Antetokounmpo. The Heat figure to throw plenty of bodies at the reigning MVP, with Adebayo, Butler, Jae Crowder and former Finals MVP Andre Iguodala all keeping a close eye. The Heat will need to watch Khris Middleton to make sure he doesn’t get hot, but this series will be defined by whether the Heat can keep the MVP favorite in check.
What the stats say
Perhaps some good news — and bad news — for the Heat as they move to the second round: The previous two times Miami swept the first round, it finished the season with an NBA Finals appearance. However, the previous three lower-seeded teams to sweep a first-round series — the 2018 New Orleans Pelicans, 2015 Washington Wizards and 2007 Chicago Bulls — lost the next series.
— Nick Friedell
2. Toronto Raptors
Round 1: Def. Nets 4-0
BPI odds (pre-Game 1) vs. Celtics: 48%
Toronto did exactly what it needed to against a depleted, overmatched Brooklyn Nets team, controlling each game — besides a close shave in Game 2 — in a convincing sweep. It didn’t take long, however, for the Raptors to realize how different things will be against the Celtics. Boston led wire-to-wire in Game 1, as Kemba Walker and Marcus Smart had their way with Kyle Lowry and Fred VanVleet. Meanwhile, Pascal Siakam continued his substandard play throughout the seeding games and the Nets series with a rough showing in Game 1.
Biggest question after Game 1: Can Toronto score enough?
Toronto’s half-court offense has been a potential Achilles’ heel all season. That certainly proved to be the case in Game 1, as Toronto shot 36.9% from the field and was an abysmal 10-for-40 from 3-point range. When the Raptors start missing shots — like they did in Game 1 — they tend to let their heads drop, and they stop moving the ball and cutting like they do when things are humming. In a series against a long, versatile defensive team such as the Celtics, Toronto can ill afford to fall into those lapses. If Siakam and VanVleet, who were a combined 8-for-32 from the field and 2-for-14 from 3-point range, can’t get going, the Raptors have little chance of advancing.
Matchup to watch: Toronto’s wings vs. Boston’s wings
Boston won its first-round series against the Philadelphia 76ers because Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum dominated their matchups against Tobias Harris and Al Horford, respectively. That will be far more difficult against Toronto, which boasts its own pair of dynamic young wings in OG Anunoby and Siakam. Brown and Tatum weren’t great in Game 1, but Siakam’s struggles made that irrelevant. The wing battle in each game will go a long way toward determining who comes out on top.
What the stats say
In Game 4 against the Nets, the Raptors became the eighth team in NBA history to score 150 points in a playoff game, receiving 100 of those from their bench. That’s the most in any regular-season or playoff game since lineups were first tracked in 1970-71. Toronto averaged 126.3 points per game in the series, the most in a four-game sweep in the NBA postseason and the fourth most in a best-of-seven series.
— Tim Bontemps
3. Boston Celtics
Round 1: Def. 76ers 4-0
BPI odds (pre-Game 1) vs. Raptors: 52%
The Celtics dispatched their forever rivals, the Philadelphia 76ers, in four (mostly) hard-fought games. Other than when the Sixers capitulated in the second half of Game 2, it was a tightly contested, difficult series.
Boston’s second-round matchup is all but certain to be more of the same — despite the ease with which the Celtics cruised to victory in Game 1. Toronto is a near mirror image of the Celtics: a versatile, battle-hardened team with excellent coaching and the ability to play in a variety of ways. Even so, given how the Celtics played against Toronto in the seeding games and in Game 1, they have to feel good about their chances of advancing.
Biggest question after Game 1: Will Gordon Hayward‘s absence matter?
The Celtics came into the postseason with a clear plan: Lean heavily on their five elite perimeter players — Kemba Walker, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Gordon Hayward and Marcus Smart — and mix and match the rest of the roster as necessary.
That plan looked great for the first 45 minutes of the playoffs … until Hayward was lost for likely the rest of the postseason because of a Grade 3 right ankle sprain suffered late in Game 1 against the Sixers. Since then, Boston has managed to survive without him, thanks to the four remaining perimeter players’ upping their games and some key contributions off the bench. On Sunday, that meant Walker and Smart thoroughly outplaying Kyle Lowry and Fred VanVleet, Brad Wanamaker giving the team seven points and six rebounds off the bench, and Semi Ojeleye bringing solid defense — and a lack of glaring mistakes — in 23 minutes.
Celtics coach Brad Stevens has repeatedly said it will take a group effort to replace Hayward’s minutes and production at both ends. So far, that group effort is working.
Matchup to watch: The benches
Toronto has a clear edge here coming into the series, as Norman Powell and Serge Ibaka are among the best backup guards and bigs, respectively, in the NBA. Boston, on the other hand, is relying on the likes of Wanamaker, Ojeleye and rookie Grant Williams to play real minutes in this series.
That worked in Game 1. It will have to keep working throughout the series. It also appears that Stevens is going to stay away from Enes Kanter, who will be targeted by Toronto whenever he is on the court. Stevens went with second-year center Robert Williams III in Game 1 instead, with Williams’ athleticism and mobility a much better fit for this series. Williams gave Boston 19 solid minutes, finishing with 10 points, 5 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 steal and 2 blocks. If he can come close to replicating that production moving forward, Stevens and the Celtics will be thrilled.
What the stats say
Tatum, Brown and Walker each averaged 20 points per game in the sweep of the 76ers. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, they are the second Celtics trio to each average 20 PPG in a playoff sweep, joining Tom Heinsohn, Frank Ramsey and Bill Sharman in the 1959 Finals against the Lakers.